We can help achieve these goals thanks to many years of experience and knowledge of our experts, who can assist in making the most of the available information.

Forecasting of pharmaceutical product sales

The pharmaceutical sector operates in non-heterogeneous environments. On the one hand one has to consider factors like the promotional campaigns of competing companies, while on the other the company has to take into account the level of government subsidies for selected pharmaceutical products. Because the level of reimbursement for pharmaceutical products changes over time, one can observe periods of intensified sales followed by periods of decreased demand. The sales of pharmaceutical products take place in a dynamic market environment and are subject to seasonal variation. Because of these factors, estimating the sales of pharmaceutical products and their market share is possible only by resorting to advanced computational techniques.

StatConsulting has developed proprietary software which uses stochastic processes and Data Mining techniques to support sales forecasting and market share estimation for pharmaceutical products.

Using our solutions it is possible to:

• forecast sales, taking into account changing reimbursement levels and seasonal variation in demand,
• plan the company budget for subsequent periods of time,
• support sales campaigns taking into consideration the actions of competing companies,
• plan loyalty programs.

Analysis of prescription migration

Prescription medicine is often sold in locations different from where the prescription was originally issued. A detailed knowledge of the prescription migration flows, i.e. the routes along which the prescriptions travel from point of issue to point of sale, provides the means to effectively manage the sales of pharmaceutical products (optimization). Because currently prescription sales data is not subjected to data quality control procedures, data quality analysis and data cleansing are an important part of prescription migration analysis.

StatConsulting offers analytical solutions which provide the means to:

• identify the mechanisms of prescription migration,
• improve logistics,
• optimally control the supplies of pharmaceutical products,
• distinguish these company representatives who are characterized by increased prescription migration.

Evaluating the effectiveness of marketing representatives

Sales of prescription medicine is frequently supported by actions of marketing representatives of pharmaceutical companies. The effectiveness of these actions depends on many factors, including the representative's individual predisposition to conducting sales. The evaluation of the actual performance of a representative requires a broad analysis of product sales data, with special attention paid to:

• analysis of prescription migration,
• analysis of marketing and promotional actions of pharmacies,
• analysis of pharmaceutical product sales in a given region.

The solutions offered by StatConsulting support:

• the evaluation of sales representatives' effectiveness,
• the procedure of financial settlement with representatives,
• the identification of factors associated with effective sales.

Determining a new product profile

An introduction of a new product to the market can be proceeded by customer satisfaction surveys. StatConsulting offers support for Conjoint Analysis for the pharmaceutical sector in the following areas:

• consultancy in questionnaire design,
• statistical analysis of data gathered from questionnaires,
• defining the pharmaceutical product with optimal characteristics,
• forecasting the market share of different variants of pharmaceutical products.

Our proprietary software for Conjoint analysis provides the means to:

• determine the purchasing preferences of customers,
• estimate the demand for a number of potential pharmaceutical products,
• estimate the price elasticity of demand.

Support for the process of new pharmaceutical product testing

StatConsulting offers support for data analysis in pre-clinical studies and in all phases of clinical trials (phases I to IV).

The support for pre-clinical studies includes toxicity evaluation and estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters. As a standard, we perform statistical analysis of quantities describing the dose-response relationship, such as the drug's therapeutic index, potential, effectiveness and sensitivity. To estimate the pharmacokinetic parameters we employ advanced computational techniques based on MCMC algorithms and Data Mining methods.

Our support for the clinical trials of new pharmaceutical products comprises:

• the design of trial structure and determining the size of tested groups,
• the planning of interim analyses, criteria for modification or termination of the trial,
• the creation of procedures, tables and computer randomization tools for various clinical trial management (CTM) systems; randomization may pertain to patients as well as materials, it has applications in various kinds of clinical trials.
• creating a data analysis plan,
• designing a database and forms for inputting data via internet or intranet,
• verifying data quality,
• performing data analysis with the use of advanced statistical tools,
• creation of the final report for the clinical trial.

In the case when the obtained results are intended for publication, we also aid in the creation of appropriate diagrams (e.g. CONSORT).

Support for Process Analytical Technology (PAT)

StatConsulting offers analyses supporting the production process of pharmaceuticals which conform to the directives of Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Our assistance focuses mainly on providing tools and solutions for task which FDA defines as multivariate data acquisition and analysis tools. Our support for PAT encompasses:

• performing data analysis of the provided material using multivariate data analysis tools, such as: generalized linear models, canonical correlation analysis, principal component analysis, data clustering (for variables and observations), neuron networks, classification trees, Bayesian analysis,
• analyzing data affected by various confounding factors. Thanks to our continued effort to follow the latest developments in statistics, biostatistics and biometrics, our analyses for the pharmaceutical sector take into account numerous difficult to analyze factors, which are typical for data obtained during the production process.